As presidential candidate Sen. John McCain concludes his visit to Florida today, his lead in the state appears to be strengthening.
Experts said it could be difficult for Sen. Barack Obama to catch up to McCain, who currently has 50 percent of the Florida vote, according to a Quinnipiac University poll last week. Obama trailed with 43 percent.
McCain's numbers are up from an Aug. 26 poll, which showed him with 47 percent.
Michael Heaney, a UF associate professor of political science, said he never expected Obama to win Florida, which leans more and more to the right every year.
McCain usually gains more support among older voters and military voters, Heaney said, and both groups are prominent in Florida.
McCain's running mate, Alsask Gov. Sarah Palin, has also energized the state's Republican voters, particularly in the corridor between Orlando and Tampa, said Larry Dodd, a Manning J. Dauer Eminent Scholar in political science at UF.
"Palin did signal that McCain was going to be more attentive to historical conservative issues," Dodd said, citing abortion and gun rights.
In addition, Dodd said, many Florida Democrats - especially women who voted for Hillary Clinton - are feeling alienated after the national party's reluctance to count the state's primary votes, Dodd said. Clinton won the Florida Democratic primary with 50 percent of the vote, according to CNN exit polls. Obama had 33 percent.
Those voters could still come back and vote for Obama, Dodd said, or decide not to vote at all.
To gain control of the state, Dodd and Heaney agreed Obama would have to change tactics.
"The biggest thing Obama could do is find a way to connect with working-class voters, middle-class voters, on the economy," Dodd said. Heaney said Obama would have to speak more directly about the war in Iraq.
Numbers could still change if either candidate makes a mistake, Dodd said.
If Obama loses any chance in Florida, Dodd said, he would have to replace it with another state that could still go either way, such as Ohio, Indiana or Pennsylvania.
No matter what the rest of Florida votes, traditionally liberal areas like Gainesville will probably still vote for Obama, Dodd said.
"If Gainesville goes for McCain, the election is over," he said.
