Halfway through October, the Gators sat just one win shy of bowl-game eligibility with five games left in the season. Two losses later, Florida’s chances of a postseason berth appear slim as it heads into arguably its most difficult stretch of the season.
The Gators are set to face three opponents ranked inside the Associated Press Top 25 in their final three weeks of the year. The first two of the final three games will be played on the road.
The Florida Gators (5-4, 3-2 SEC) open their final three-game stretch against the No.18 Louisiana State Tigers (6-3, 4-2 SEC) 7:30 p.m. Saturday at Tiger Stadium. The Gators are 14-point underdogs against LSU.
The Tigers have the most efficient offense in college football and lead the nation in offensive points per game and yards per game. There is a chance LSU could be without its Heisman Trophy candidate starting quarterback Jayden Daniels, who went down with a concussion against No. 8 Alabama on Saturday.
Tigers redshirt sophomore backup quarterback Garrett Nussmeier will make the start if Daniels is unable to play. He’s appeared in five games this season and thrown for 196 yards and one touchdown in 33 passing attempts.
The absence should create an opportunity for the Gators offense to keep possession of the ball longer, which is an enormous advantage for Florida sophomore running back Trevor Etienne and junior running back Montrell Johnson Jr. due to the defensive matchup.
LSU has the second-worst run defense in the Southeastern Conference based on yards per game. Its defense, as a whole, surrenders 28.2 points per game.
Napier’s go-to plan of attack has always been to keep the ball in the hands of his running backs. It’s pivotal to his success as a play caller.
This season, when Florida runs the ball 30 or more times in a game, it’s 5-0, and winless when it falls short of that mark. If the Gators can escape Death Valley victorious and secure bowl eligibility, Johnson and Etienne will need to emerge as focal points of the offense.
On top of the Tigers’ lackluster run defense, Florida redshirt junior quarterback Graham Mertz will have an opportunity to throw the ball against LSU’s injured secondary which is without three of its transfer cornerbacks and will instead rely on its inexperienced defensive backs to try and contain the Gators receivers.
On the opposite side of the ball, it will be as equally as difficult of a task for Florida’s secondary to contain the Tigers receivers. LSU junior wideouts Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. should help pave the way for the offense.
Nabers leads the nation in receiving yards with 1,152 and has hauled in 10 touchdowns. Thomas is a vertical deep threat who averages 17 yards per catch and has scored 11 touchdowns.
The Gators have surrendered 294 passing yards per game and eight passing touchdowns in their last three contests.
UF’s rushing defense has also struggled immensely and sacrificed more than 150 yards on the ground in each of its last three games, which should open up an opportunity for Tigers junior running back Logan Diggs to emerge as a focal point Saturday.
“If Jayden [Daniels] doesn’t play, we know they’re going to try to run the ball,” said Gators junior defensive lineman Cam Jackson on Wednesday. “So we got to try to make them a one-dimensional team.”
Arguably, the biggest hurdle Florida will have to overcome is the atmosphere of Tiger Stadium. Since 2000, the Tigers have lost just 24 times on their home turf. There have been only six seasons LSU has lost more than one home game since the turn of the century.
“They say at night it’s crazy,” said UF redshirt sophomore offensive lineman Austin Barber Monday. “I’m excited to play there, it’s going to be fun.”
Saturday’s contest between the Florida Gators and LSU Tigers will begin at 7:30 p.m. at Tiger Stadium. The game will be broadcast on SEC Network.
Contact Luke Adragna at ladragna@alligator.org. Follow him on Twitter @lukeadrag.
Luke Adragna is a third-year journalism student and the Florida Gators football reporter at The Alligator. He is a cat ethusiast and completes the NYT Daily Mini in less than a minute each day.
