While I know how excited UF fans are for a chance to see their Gators battle it out against Ron Zook and the Illini in the Capital One or Outback bowl, the Gators still can earn a spot in one of the nation's elite bowl games.
If the Gators are going to break the bank and earn a trip to a BCS bowl game, they'll need some help from other teams.
Keep in mind that UF cannot automatically qualify for a BCS bowl at this point. But the bowl representatives determine at-large bids subjectively, and a team is eligible for selection if it wins at least nine games and finishes in the top 14 in the BCS standings.
In addition, no more than one team from each conference can be selected at-large unless there aren't enough eligible teams ranked among the top 14. Under typical circumstances, the Southeastern Conference champion receives one of those two spots automatically, leaving just one team to be selected by virtue of its resume.
Confused? Let me try to help.
The following is a list of scenarios that could land UF a spot in a BCS bowl game.
The Gators likely play in a BCS bowl if they defeat FSU and (Caution: the following could give you a major headache):
Scenario 1: Kentucky defeats Tennessee and Georgia loses to LSU in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game.
Scenario 2: Georgia loses to Georgia Tech and either Tennessee or Georgia loses to LSU in the SEC title game.
Scenario 3: Georgia loses to Georgia Tech or Tennessee loses to Kentucky and LSU loses to both Arkansas and the SEC East champ in Atlanta.
Explanation: Remember, only two teams from the SEC can make it. LSU seems likely to be one of those teams, and the next most likely team in UF's way is Georgia.
Unless Georgia loses another game, it would be completely irrational to take the Gators instead of the Bulldogs. Not only did Georgia win head-to-head, but also the Bulldogs would have a better overall record, conference record and would be ranked higher in the BCS standings.
There are two ways for Georgia to pick up another loss. One is against Georgia Tech this weekend. The other is for Tennessee to lose to Kentucky, allowing the Bulldogs to play in the SEC title game where they could lose to LSU.
Since the Gators clobbered Tennessee in September and the two teams' records are the same, the Volunteers would need to win out and grab the automatic bid in Atlanta to make it to a BCS bowl before UF.
Meanwhile, LSU, who is competing for a national title, would need to lose twice to have any chance of falling out of the BCS entirely.
Those are the facts.
So what makes me think the Gators would get a bid ahead of a Georgia team assuming the Bulldogs lose the SEC title game?
First of all, in the brief history of the BCS, teams that lose in their conference title games usually get left out. Think Arkansas last year, which won the SEC West, lost to UF in Atlanta and saw LSU grab a spot in the Sugar Bowl.
Secondly, UF's national appeal is far greater. The Gators have the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy at quarterback, and they are defending national champions.
Prediction: While a BCS Bowl berth isn't unlikely, the Gators just don't seem to be catching any breaks lately. Perhaps they used all of their luck last year. Look for UF to take on the Fighting Zookers in a media-hyped Capital One Bowl on New Year's Day in Orlando.
