You’re not ready.
The Sweet 16 just tipped off, and you’re already dreaming of Florida reaching its first Final Four since 2007. It’s understandable.
I have UF going all the way in my bracket.
What the hell is a No. 15 seed doing in the South Regional semifinal of the NCAA Tournament? It’s just not right.
But before you start thinking about Michigan or Kansas, just wait a second. Maybe Florida Gulf Coast really is all that and a bag of chips. And a Happy Meal toy.
Here are eight things that make me think that maybe — just maybe — the Eagles will send the Gators home and advance to the Elite Eight.
- Dunk City: You saw this coming. Just watch the video on Deadspin.
- Swish City: FGCU is America’s darling, and the Eagles’ high-flying dunks are the icing on the cake. But FGCU has been scorching opponents from all over the floor. During their past three halves, the Eagles have scored 135 points on 56.1 percent shooting. Georgetown ranks sixth in the nation with a 37.8 percent opponent field goal percentage. San Diego State is 33rd at 39.3 percent. When FGCU’s fast-paced offense is on fire, it’s difficult to stop.
- Geniusville: Thomas Edison and Henry Ford used to own neighboring estates in Fort Myers. FGCU is in Fort Myers. Maybe the Eagles will invent a way to upset the Gators. How about a bottle of Michael’s Secret Stuff?
- Dissension among the ranks?: Florida cornerback Jaylen Watkins got into a little trouble on Twitter this week when the Fort Myers native decided to show some love for his hometown team. He clarified his comments by saying he supports the Gators “1000 percent,” but he remains neutral.
“Ok let me correct anybody that thinks I’m rooting for FGCU... I am supporting them...AND the gators... I don’t understand the problem I am,” Watkins posted to his account, @jwat14, on March 25.
If Watkins is on the fence, what’s stopping other Fort Myers Gators like Earnest Graham and Jevon Kearse from jumping ship? Uh-oh.
- Brett Comer: He is the engine that makes the Eagles go. The sophomore point guard is on fire right now, averaging 11 points and 12 assists per game in FGCU’s upset victories against Georgetown and San Diego State. Billy Donovan compared Comer’s court vision to Missouri point guard Phil Pressey, who tallied 10 assists in the Tigers’ 63-60 win against the Gators on Feb. 19.
Comer has proven careless with the basketball, averaging 4.9 turnovers per game in the Eagles’ ten losses this season. But with just five total giveaways in two NCAA Tournament contests, he appears more focused and increasingly careful with a national championship in his sight.
- The crowd: FGCU is 15-1 this season when playing at home in Alico Arena, which seats 4,500 fans. Now imagine the Eagles playing in Cowboys Stadium. The 30,000 fans who fill Jerry Jones’ cathedral tonight will undoubtedly be partial to FGCU. UF is 7-5 on the road this year, including three losses in its last four games in front of hostile crowds. I know tonight’s game is at a neutral site, but c’mon. Two types of non-Gators fans will actively root for Florida tonight. The first type still has a legitimate chance to win his bracket pool. The other probably takes candy from babies and doesn’t wash his hands after using the restroom.
- UF goes cold: The Gators are one of the best defensive teams in the country, but if they can’t slow down the Eagles’ fast-paced attack, then UF will need to score a lot to keep up. While Patric Young is capable of stepping up in the paint, Florida lives and dies from the perimeter.
As Greg Luca has written repeatedly in this paper, one rough offensive stretch could be all it takes to sink UF.
If this one becomes a shootout and Kenny Boynton and Erik Murphy struggle to hit their three-pointers, then the Gators will become the latest victim in the Eagles’ improbable tourney run.
- “F--k the Gators!”: FGCU has already won two games it was supposed to lose. Why is Florida any scarier? The Gators are flaky at the end of close games. That’s how UF has been eliminated from the past two NCAA Tournaments. Florida is 0-6 in games decided by single digits this season. If the Eagles keep it close tonight, who knows?
Contact Joe Morgan at joemorgan@alligator.org.
Junior center Patric Young (right) attempts a hook shot during Florida’s 66-40 win against Vanderbilt on March 6 in the O’Connell Center. .
