With only two conference games remaining, Florida can still win the SEC East if it can defeat South Carolina at home and No. 19 LSU on the road. Add on a road matchup at No. 22 Florida State, however, and the home stretch of UF’s schedule looks daunting. How will the Gators finish out the season? Sports writers Ethan Bauer, Ian Cohen, Jordan McPherson and Patrick Pinak debate.
Bauer:
Florida is once again facing a brutal stretch to close out its season, and with the barrage of injuries sustained against Arkansas, the end of this season could be rougher than the end of the last.
A season ago, Florida closed with a lackluster, overtime victory against Florida Atlantic followed by a trio of resounding defeats against Florida State, Alabama and Michigan. And this season, there’s no Florida Atlantic-esque team to tune up for FSU. Instead, the Gators will face LSU in what will be — undoubtedly — UF’s most important game of the season.
After the Gators beat South Carolina this weekend, the LSU game will determine if Florida makes it to the Southeastern Conference Championship for the second season in a row. And I don’t think the Gators get it done in Death Valley.
If Florida doesn’t make it, it avoids humiliation at the hands of Alabama. If it does make it, UF loses by more than 20 points.
As for the annual rivalry game against the Seminoles, Florida still isn’t good enough to get it done. Florida State will take the victory, their fourth in a row.
And as for a bowl game, does it really matter? With four losses, perhaps the Belk Bowl, the Music City Bowl or the TaxSlayer Bowl are on the horizon. And yes, those are exactly as prestigious as they sound.
Cohen:
It will take a dramatic ending, but Florida will win the SEC East.
And here’s why.
Florida has never lost back-to-back regular season games under Jim McElwain. Yes, less than two seasons is a small sample size, but I don’t see Florida losing its second-straight game this weekend, especially against a Will Muschamp-led South Carolina on Senior Day.
LSU is where it starts to get interesting. You can make the argument that a road game in Death Valley will be the toughest game Florida has or will play all season.
LSU gave up just 10 points to No. 1 Alabama at home last weekend, and the Crimson Tide rank fourth in the SEC in total offense.
Compare that to Florida, which ranks 12th in the SEC and might not have their starting quarterback or center (or linebackers, for that matter), and there aren’t many reasons for optimism.
So after a win against South Carolina and a loss against LSU, I’ll inexplicably take Florida over FSU on the road. Call it a gut feeling (I prefer innate genius), but I think the Seminoles’ winning streak will be snapped purely because they’ll be hosting a pissed off Florida team who has just lost their third road game of the season.
My prediction: UF goes 2-1 down the stretch, and the rest of the SEC East will be just bad enough to let Florida sweep in and take the division crown.
McPherson:
If you asked me this question two weeks ago, I would have told you Florida would definitely beat South Carolina, put up a fight against LSU and probably defeat Florida State for the first time since 2012. But now, I’m not so sure.
Forget losing Del Rio potentially for the rest of the season. The Gators’ defense is the spot experiencing the biggest setback with linebackers Alex Anzalone and Jarrad Davis out of commission. Let’s face it. David Reese, Kylan Johnson and Daniel McMillian are not going to stop Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook.
And Will Muschamp-led South Carolina has found an offensive groove as of late, averaging 29.7 points and 382.7 yards over the last three games — wins over UMass, Tennessee and Missouri.
For those reasons, I have Florida going 0-3 down the stretch (Yes, I’m saying the Gators will lose to South Carolina). With that, the Gators will fall to 6-5 in the regular season (4-4 in SEC play), lose the SEC East title they seemingly had in their grasp a week ago and play in a low-tier bowl game.
Could Florida rally around its new starting quarterback and make a statement? Absolutely. Could the defense still hold its own? Sure. But we’ve heard that story before. It hasn’t worked out, so I’m not buying it yet.
Pinak:
I predicted at the beginning of the season UF would finish with four losses, and I’m sticking with that.
Florida will take care of South Carolina handily, mainly because it’s Senior Day and Will Muschamp hollering from the opposing sideline will provide extra motivation.
Then UF’s final two regular-season games come down to the now injury-ridden defense that gave up 38 points at Tennessee and 31 at Arkansas.
No Alex Anzalone and a hobbling Jarrad Davis will create problems in stopping opposing run games, which means Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook will feast like they know how.
With the SEC East title on the line, the Gators will stumble against LSU in Death Valley.
It’s a rare day game in Baton Rouge and the crowd may not be as boisterous, but Florida’s offense just has too many question marks to challenge the Tigers. Plus, if Alabama mustered a measly 10 points in Tiger Stadium, there’s no way UF will come close to that.
Are negative points possible?
A bout with FSU a week later will follow a similar script.
FSU’s defense has allowed at least 34 points in more than half of their games, but Florida’s offense is still paltry.
Whether Luke Del Rio’s right shoulder is healthy by then won’t make much of a difference, as the Gators won’t be able to keep pace with a Cook-led Seminoles offense.
Coach Jim McElwain looks on during Florida's 24-10 win over Georgia on Oct. 29, 2016, in Jacksonville.
