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Friday, April 19, 2024

After five days, not much has changed.

As the UF men's basketball team heads into Wednesday's matchup against Georgia, the Gators (20-7, 7-5 Southeastern Conference) will once again fight for their tournament lives.

When tip-off arrives in Athens, Ga., UF will be in its second must-win opportunity in as many games - a trend this young group is sure to experience as the season counts down.

This journey from back-to-back national champions to bubble team is worth recalling as UF prepares for its defining stretch.

Jerry Palm, a bracketologist with CollegeRPI.com, said UF has only itself to blame for its current problems.

"Florida has a problem in that it did absolutely nothing in the non-conference schedule," Palm said. "That is a huge negative. You've basically taken the first half of the season off."

Looking back, Palm is likely pointing to an early season defined by in-state punching bags and teams miles off the radar.

The only recognizable games came against Ohio State and Florida State, two unranked squads that throttled UF by double digits.

Games against High Point, North Dakota State, Stetson and Charleston Southern, Palm said, are not exactly head-turners.

"They put up a gaudy record, but they didn't play anybody," he said. "They played the worst non-conference schedule that the committee will look at in that room this year."

Palm said it's understandable why the Gators would do this.

With such a young team, it's likely UF coach Billy Donovan felt his team needed time to mesh before facing credible programs.

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This decision, however, leaned on the team to post an impressive conference record -something it has failed to do.

A blowout defeat to Arkansas and a loss to SEC laggard LSU didn't help. Additionally, aside from the win against Vanderbilt at home, the Gators have yet to post a victory against a favored squad.

These issues place a heavy emphasis on the upcoming games against Mississippi State, Tennessee and Kentucky, where Palm said he thinks UF must surprise someone if it plans to make any noise.

"[The Gators] have to finish strong and put up a good conference record," he said. "By good, I don't mean 9-7."

Currently UF's RPI - which is a formula used by the NCAA to rate teams based 25 percent on winning percentage, 50 percent on average opponent's winning percentage and 25 percent on average opponents' opponents' winning percentage - is 59.

The Gators have just three wins against teams ranked in the RPI top 100 - Temple, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.

No team has ever made the NCAA Tournament without at least one of those. So the question becomes, is three enough?

"They just need to stop losing games," Palm said.

Donovan said his team can't be caught up in a numbers game. All these issues are above their heads, he said.

The Gators need to focus on what lies ahead and not try to make sense out of something foreign to them.

"It would be like trying to explain what marriage is like to someone who's never been married," Donovan said. "These guys haven't been through enough experiences."

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