History dictates that this season will not be kind to Florida head coach Will Muschamp.
Call it the “Ray Graves Trend.”
Since Graves resigned from his position as the Gators head football coach following the 1969 season, every Florida coach has experienced either significant success or disappointment in their second year at the helm in a magical, alternating pattern.
The trend began with Doug Dickey in 1971. After posting a 7-4 record in his first season replacing Graves, Dickey finished his second season 4-7.
After an up-and-down nine-year tenure, Dickey was fired.
The Gators’ next coach, Charley Pell, had much better luck during his second go-around. After leading Florida to its only winless season in 1979, he rebounded with an 8-4 mark in 1980. Pell was eventually ousted three games into the 1984 season after committing 107 NCAA infractions.
Galen Hall went from 9-1-1 in 1985 in his first full season to 6-5 in 1986. Bad.
Steve Spurrier led the Gators to their first 10-win season and first-ever Southeastern Conference title in his second season in 1991. Good.
Ron Zook finished 8-5 in 2003 — bad — and Urban Meyer claimed Florida’s second national championship in 2006 — you guessed it, good.
But history could change. In the Bowl Championship Series era, four second-year head coaches have hoisted the crystal football at season’s end.
Florida offensive coordinator Brent Pease believes Muschamp is capable of following in the footsteps of Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, Gene Chizik and Meyer.
“You get to the point where he’s put his stamp on the program,” Pease said. “You’ve got a feel of the kids and you’ve built up your standards and how to interact. They know what’s right, they know what’s wrong. They know what is going to fly in the system and what’s not going to fly in the system.”
Gators history says one thing, and recent trends say another. However, in this case, the “Ray Graves Trend” wins out, because UF is a mess.
This team dictates that this season will not be kind to Muschamp.
Forgive the cliché, but if you have two quarterbacks, then you do not have one. Frankly, this team was better off with John Brantley in 2010.
Also, is it really reasonable to rely on Mike Gillislee to anchor a running game hampered by inexperienced quarterbacks? Please.
Gillislee’s predictions for his output this season are insane.
He is not running for 1,500 yards, and there is no way he will score 24 touchdowns to break Tim Tebow’s single-season SEC record of 23.
In fact, I’ll be surprised if Gators find the end zone in the ground game 24 times combined in 2012.
Until the receivers prove something, I am only giving them this one sentence.
The same goes for the offensive line.
The defense is full of gangbusters. Expect this unit to be tougher and more aggressive now that they have a full year in the Muschamp-Quinn scheme under their belts. When Matt Elam calls himself a predator, you don’t laugh, and you don’t run a route over the middle.
Florida will play its opponents close with solid defense but will ultimately face defeat with an inefficient offense.
The Gators have no starting quarterback, unproven receivers and a suspect offensive line. Apparently, a career backup at starting running back is Florida’s only sure thing when it comes to the offense. In a weak SEC East, UF will not contend.
The “Ray Graves Trend” will strike again in 2012.
Contact Joe Morgan at joemorgan@alligator.org.
