When Bob Tancig thinks about climate change in Gainesville, he thinks about azaleas. The small pink flowers traditionally bloom from February to April, when temperatures start to increase after chilly North Florida winters. But Tancig has started spotting them as early as December.
He’s heard some people call the changes that come with temperature shifts “climate chaos.” Chair of the Gainesville chapter of the Climate Reality Project, Tancig has lived in Gainesville since the 1980s, and he sees the impact of climate change in more than just the azaleas.
“Alachua County is expected to see an increase of people who are moving here because of the climate threats in South Florida,” he said.
As more South Florida residents are priced out of the area and climate threats loom, Central and North Florida are changing to accommodate emerging migration patterns. An FAU survey found over one in three Floridians considered moving because of climate change in 2025.
Climate change threatens coastlines, raising sea levels by increasing amounts each year. In South Florida, where Tancig is from, sea levels are expected to rise by 10-17 inches by 2040. By 2100, sea level rise will result in increased coastal flooding, which is expected to impact almost 500,000 people in Florida.
In Tancig’s view, cities have to decide between paying to mitigate problems like sea level rise or paying to increase resilience to those problems. And they’re running out of time.
“A lot of the money that we could or should be spending on reinforcing our infrastructure and transitioning the clean energy sources, that money is now instead being directed to recover from the disasters that have occurred, because we haven't been spending our money in those areas,” he said.
Rising insurance and housing costs in coastal areas have contributed to inland migration. Florida has the third-highest average annual premium, meaning the cost of an insurance plan, at $5,838, is more than $3,000 higher than the national average. South Florida counties like Monroe have annual premiums up to $7,000. By contrast, Alachua’s average in 2023 was $1,877.
Projections from Nature Climate Change show that by 2100, Miami could lose more than 2.5 million residents, with Orlando seeing over 250,000 migrants. A study from UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research projected Alachua County will see 23,000 new residents by 2100 due to sea level rise.
Rising insurance costs in vulnerable areas of Florida create a financial incentive to relocate, said Esther Mullens, assistant professor of geography at UF. She raised concerns about a person’s emotional attachment to the place they live, which could lead them to remain in a place when it becomes too dangerous.
Cities and governments will have to factor in extreme weather when it comes time to work on relocation plans.
“How do you do that in a sustainable way that's respecting the fact that people have a strong connection to a place?” she said. “It's going to be very emotionally difficult to know what to do about that.”
Mullens points to record-breaking heat during Florida summers and the hurricane patterns of 2024 when addressing how these shifts will necessitate change. More housing development companies are offering net-zero options, as well as spray foam insulation to reduce heat inside homes.
In her classes, UF assistant professor of architecture Patricia Kio challenges her students to generate possible solutions to the problems posed by climate change. They focus on making structures more resilient to things like raised temperatures and flooding.
Gainesville has implemented resilient features on many homes and structures, with emphasis on reducing the impact of extreme heat. The city's Climate Resiliency Plan prioritizes planting more trees in urban areas and transitioning away from fossil fuels and toward solar energy.
As Kio explains, resilience won’t come down to one decision, but a new system of thinking and problem-solving.
“Thinking responsibly, thinking sustainably, using the minimum things that you require,” she said. “Always thinking about the future generations when we make our decisions.”
Contact Juliana DeFilippo at jdefillipo@alligator.org. Follow her on X @JulianaDeF58101.
Juliana is a second-year journalism student and the Spring 2026 Enterprise environment reporter. This is her fourth semester on The Alligator, and she previously served as an Avenue reporter and the Fall 2025 Avenue editor. In her free time, she loves reading, updating her Letterboxd account and doing crosswords.
