Everyone loves a Cinderella story, but those stories just became harder to write thanks to the NCAA’s expansion of the beloved March Madness tournament from 68 to 76 teams.
The good news is the 64-team bracket we’ve come to know will stay the same. What’s changed is what occurs in the days leading up to the tournament after Selection Sunday. The “First Four” will now be known as the “Opening Round” with 24 teams playing in 12 games to officially have their school’s name printed on the bracket.
The NCAA cites its primary motivation for expansion as “more championship opportunities for student-athletes.” In reality, this is a move that continues to widen the gap between power conferences and mid-major leagues.
Under the new format, the eight teams who would’ve made this year’s tournament are Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State, New Mexico, Indiana, Stanford, Cincinnati and Seton Hall, per Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi. That’s five power conference teams — six if you include Seton Hall from the Big East, which is a de facto power conference in college basketball. Two other teams are mid-majors by definition but tournament regulars anyway, so not mid-majors in the true sense of the term.
Even if these teams are double-digit seeds and win a couple tournament games, is it still a Cinderella story? Ask yourself what’s more magical: 11-seed NC State making the Final Four in 2024 or 9-seed Florida Atlantic making the Final Four in 2023? How about 15-seed St. Peter’s making the Elite Eight in 2022?
It’s not like power conference bubble teams haven’t had the opportunity to prove themselves worthy of making the tournament. They had 30 regular-season games to prove it, and they didn’t. Pretty soon, they may have 32. They played against tournament competition over the course of the regular season and, by losing, proved they weren’t good enough.
Of course, anything is possible in March, but it’s unlikely a team like Auburn that went 7-11 in SEC play and 17-16 overall is going to miraculously win seven games in a row en route to a National Championship — especially considering the power dynamics like more Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) currency for the top teams. Auburn, being in the SEC, has those resources, but it simply wasn’t as good.
Not only does this expansion make it more difficult for smaller mid-majors to get into the dance, but it also decreases the likelihood of them causing chaos. Consider UMBC in 2018, the first 16-seed to ever upset a 1-seed. UMBC didn’t play in the First Four that year. Would they have beaten Virginia after playing a competitive game just two days earlier? Would they have even gotten the chance?
The road to the Final Four just got that much harder, even for projected 1-seeds like Florida, who now might have to play what would’ve been a low-level 15-seed before the expansion. In any other year, they’d be guaranteed to play one of the bottom six teams.
Even before the new format is implemented, we’re coming off of back-to-back seasons with zero teams seeded lower than 12 advancing to the round of 32. 11-seed Texas was the only double-digit seed to make it to the Sweet 16 in 2026. More games might just lead to more chalk results instead of more chaos.
For the NCAA, more games equals more eyeballs, and more eyeballs equals more money. While casual fans might be confused filling out their brackets this coming season when there are 12 empty slots instead of the usual four, die-hard college basketball junkies will appreciate the ability to watch more meaningful games in March.
Just don’t expect the glass slipper to fit on an unknown school’s foot any time soon.
Contact Brayden Schultz at bschultz@alligator.org. Follow him on X @schultzbrayden9.
