With UF’s season opener against UMass fast approaching, alligatorSports football writers Ethan Bauer, Ian Cohen, Jordan McPherson and Patrick Pinak take their best shots at predicting how the 25th-ranked Gators will fare this year.
BAUER: 9-3 (6-2 SEC)
Florida’s 2016 season hinges on a Sept. 24 date with Tennessee in Knoxville. If the Gators can knock off the Volunteers, they should be favorites to win the SEC East.
But if they don’t, 2016 will be remembered — or forgotten — as a down season for Florida football.
Putting my Tennessee prediction aside for now, I don’t see the Gators beating LSU, even in The Swamp. Even for UF’s stout defensive front, Leonard Fournette will just be too much.
The same goes for Dalvin Cook in Florida’s matchup with FSU in Tallahassee. The Miami native is an early Heisman favorite and the Seminoles’ defense is loaded with talent. And even though Florida’s offense should be better this season, Florida State’s is national-championship caliber.
The other two games that should be highly contested are Georgia and Arkansas.
Georgia is still in a period of flux with a new head coach and uncertainty at quarterback, so I think the Gators will claw their way out of Jacksonville with a win.
As for Arkansas, the Razorbacks are also in a difficult spot having lost two elite rushers — Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams — to the NFL. This one should be close, but with Arkansas ranked No. 58 last year in total defense and Florida at No. 8, I think the UF defense limits Arkansas’ offense and allows the Gators to squeak out a win in a low-scoring game.
There’s also one big-time trap game on Florida’s schedule in Week 2 when Kentucky comes to Gainesville.
The Gators have owned the Wildcats for 29 straight years, but UK is getting better. And sandwiched between games against UMass and North Texas, the Wildcats, led by new, highly anticipated quarterback Drew Barker, have the perfect slot to pull off the upset.
I don’t think that’ll happen, but it's more likely now than it has been in a while.
But again, the pivotal game is Tennessee. If UF wins that, it has a good shot of making it back to the SEC Championship game. That would be a success.
If it loses — and thanks to Tennessee’s two-headed monster backfield of Alvin Kamara and Jalen Hurd along with dual-threat quarterback Josh Dobbs, I think it will — then 2016 will end the streak against Tennessee to go with losses against rivals FSU and LSU.
Even with nine other wins, that’s not what Florida fans are hoping for.
COHEN: 10-2 (6-2 SEC)
Finally, for the first time in what seems like a decade, the Gators seem to have a reliable starter at quarterback.
And for a team that figures to have a top-20 defense, that will make all the difference.
Here’s the thing: If Luke Del Rio plays just OK, if he doesn’t cause a bunch of turnovers and gets the ball to his playmakers — who the Gators seem to have a surprisingly large amount of this year — then Florida will be good. Good enough to win the SEC East.
And it’ll all be because of UF’s defense.
Florida has a dynamic cornerback duo in Jalen Tabor and Quincy Wilson, plus one of the best defensive lines in the country. And with its recent history, no one should doubt that.
Florida has had a defensive lineman drafted in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft each of the past five years.
This year, its line is headlined by Caleb Brantley — Jonathan Bullard’s understudy — along with a healthy mix of talented upperclassmen and underclassmen.
And on offense, they’ll be unrecognizable from last year’s 111th ranking in total yards per game (334).
UF has a competent stable of running backs to make up for the loss of Kelvin Taylor to the NFL, and at receiver, the Gators have more talent than you may suspect.
Antonio Callaway will be UF’s main threat followed by junior Brandon Powell, and don’t sleep on transfer Dre Massey. He’s a versatile, quick playmaker who can play anywhere from the slot, the outside or as a returner on special teams.
A 10-2 record definitely isn’t inconceivable in 2016, with losses to a Les Miles-led LSU at home and Kirby Smart-run Georgia in Jacksonville. And yes, that means I think they’ll beat FSU on the road.
But don’t be surprised if they lose to Alabama once again in the SEC title game.
McPHERSON: 9-3 (6-2 SEC)
In all reality, Florida’s success in 2016 bubbles down to four games: Road trips to Tennessee and Florida State, a home game against LSU and the annual contest against Georgia in Jacksonville.
The common thread among all four of those teams? A solid running back.
Jalen Hurd (UT), Dalvin Cook (FSU), Leonard Fournette (LSU) and Nick Chubb (UGA) will test Florida’s run defense early and often in those games.
Based on last year’s games, that can be troubling.
Hurd, Fournette and Cook torched UF’s defense in 2015 for a combined 476 yards and six touchdowns (remember, Chubb was injured and did not play in the Florida-Georgia game). 2015 Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry also had a field day with the Gators’ defense in last year’s SEC Championship game, rushing for 189 yards and a touchdown.
If Luke Del Rio and the offense can put up decent numbers and the defense can find an answer for stopping Heisman-worthy running backs, the Gators have a chance to go far this year and stay in the hunt for the elusive SEC title. If not, it’s back to the drawing board for another year.
PINAK: (8-4, 5-3 SEC)
Florida won a number of games in 2015 by small margins. I think the script flips a bit this year.
UF’s stout defensive line and ball-hawking secondary will still lead the Gators to wins over their three weaker non-conference opponents and SEC teams like Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Arkansas and South Carolina.
But Tennessee, backed by a powerful rushing combo of running back Jalen Hurd and quarterback Joshua Dobbs, will finally snap the Gators’ streak of 11 straight wins dating back to 2005. After all, Florida barely pulled off last year’s thrilling 28-27 victory over the Volunteers.
Despite questions surrounding Georgia’s quarterback, the Bulldogs return a healthy Nick Chubb after tearing his ACL last year and a sturdy defense that held opponents to 305.9 yards per game, seventh best in the country. Those two factors alone might prove to be too much for Luke Del Rio and the Gators.
Then you have Florida State and LSU, both led by their star running backs. Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette each ran for 180 or more yards and two touchdowns in wins against said stout defensive line in 2015. I don’t see that, or the results, changing much this season.
Cornerback Jalen Tabor (31) celebrates after successfully defending wide receiver Josh Hammond (10) during the Orange & Blue Debut on April 8, 2016, at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
