In what pundits are calling a year with "strong Democratic tailwinds" (think economic woes, unpopular president, etc.), Sen. John McCain has managed to hold the presidential contest between him and Sen. Barack Obama very close. According to Real Clear Politics, an organization that averages a week's worth of poll results from multiple sources, McCain was in a dead heat with Obama in national and battleground state polls.
Unfortunately for the GOP, the past month has not been kind to the senator from Arizona, and Obama has begun to break away.
Despite a recent Associated Press poll of likely voters that shows Obama about even with McCain, it still seems certain that - barring an October surprise - Obama will blow McCain off the electoral map on election day.
Ever since the Dow went schizophrenic and consumer confidence began plummeting, Obama has taken over. Nationally, polls indicate more than 50 percent of voters believe the economy is the most important issue and more voters believe Obama is better equipped to handle financial breakdowns than McCain.
According to a Qunnipiac University poll released Friday, voters in the key electoral states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania believe Obama is more economically capable than McCain, by varying margins of 8 to 19 percentage points. Combined with reports that the economy won't right itself until long after Election Day and the Dow's slide into oblivion, these sorry economic conditions favor Obama.
General polling averages in key states do not look promising for McCain, either. In Virginia, which was once a GOP stronghold, McCain is down by an average of 7 percentage points. In North Carolina, it's a toss-up between the two candidates. If Obama flips either the Old Dominion or the Tar Heel State, then the Obamabots could be drinking election night away by 9 p.m.
Early voting turnout favors Obama, too. In North Carolina, Democrats are outvoting Republicans by a margin of nearly 3-to-1. Meanwhile, blacks, who only make up 21 percent of the state's population, make up 31 percent of early voters. There is no way these trends don't lend themselves to Obama's future success.
In Georgia, 55 percent of early voters are women while more than 35 percent are black - two demographics who strongly favor Obama.
The Illinois senator's campaign has consistently harped on the importance of early voting, and so far, they've seen results. If this keeps up, Obama will have this election wrapped up in no time.
What remains to be seen is whether the young senator can fulfill his campaign promises to lower taxes, end the war in Iraq and stabilize the economy - all while increasing spending and entitlement programs.
In the end, winning an election is vastly different than following through on campaign promises, no matter how large your margin of victory is.
If he comes out on top on Nov. 4, Obama will still have a lot of battles to fight as president.
Kyle Robisch is a political science and economics sophomore. His column appears on Mondays.
