Although a Monday poll showed Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama with a seven-point lead over Sen. John McCain in Florida, experts say it's not a guarantee he'll win the state in the presidential election.
The Rasmussen Report poll showed Obama with his highest Florida numbers so far, leading Republican candidate McCain 52 percent to 45 percent, with a possible margin of error of 3 percent.
Last week, Rasmussen polls showed the candidates were tied in Florida, and the week before, the polls showed McCain in the lead.
Obama's increasing lead might have been caused by a recent focus on the economy, said Micheal Heaney, a UF assistant professor of political science.
Michael Martinez, a UF associate professor of political science, said McCain's numbers might get a boost if focus is placed on foreign policy or another issue he is known for.
Not all polls showed Obama with a decisive lead. A Tuesday Mason-Dixon poll showed the two candidates to be about even with Obama at 48 percent and McCain at 46 percent, with a 4 percent margin of error.
As the election approaches and voters choose candidates, poll numbers for each candidate will become more reliable, Martinez said.
But the polls are still subject to fluctuation, Heaney said.
If either of the candidates makes a public mistake, undecided voters could change their minds, Heaney said.
"Polls are measuring things that are inherently unstable," he said.
Heaney said he believed Obama would win the election overall, but Florida, which has had an increasing tendency to vote Republican in past elections, would go to McCain in November.
"It's a safe bet that things will swing back to McCain," he said. "I think McCain is going to win Florida."
Martinez said he agreed that Obama would win the election but McCain could have a hard time regaining ground in Florida, especially after losing the luster of the addition of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as the vice-presidential candidate.
"It's an uphill battle for McCain," Martinez said.
