Of all the words and phrases that have been tossed around by pundits and politicos in describing the Obama presidency, which have included everything from Kennedy-esque to closet Quran worship, the one that never really stuck was "political miscalculation." While the Obama administration has been consistently hammered, fairly or not, for its stances relating to domestic and foreign policy, it was thought difficult, if not impossible, to find a chink in the armor of its political foresight. Its ability to navigate the tides of perception and political consequence within its own base come as no surprise given the president's education in a Cook County political system that forces those involved to think three steps ahead with one eye forward and the other peering over their shoulders.
That notion was cracked last week when President Obama, in a move that was as spontaneous as it was politically clumsy, called upon Israel to establish a two-state construct based on the pre-1967 borders. Such a model would force Israel to concede territory in the West Bank and Gaza. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims this move would leave his country in a vulnerable predicament.
Whether the culprit behind such a betrayal of political foresight was a legitimate international concern, personal ambition or a desire to defy the odds - no matter how insurmountable and unrealistic they may be - it cannot be argued that it left a bloody scene full of fingerprints. For a president whose recent foreign policy ventures have helped beat back the perception of him as a "weak" leader, the call for Israel to compromise comes as a Category 5 blunder given the testy political climate that will only continue to rise with each passing month before next November.
It's akin to shooting oneself in the feet with a bazooka just after running through a garden full of rakes and having every one of them hit you in the face like Sideshow Bob.
For Obama to voluntarily jump through this trapdoor represents an unhealthy combination of naivete and poor political judgment. Netanyahu has shown very little signs that he is actually willing to negotiate with a side he views as nothing short of violent and hostile. It would be foolish to believe that the momentum gained from a bombing campaign and a dead terrorist would be enough to move this mountain of an issue forward.
Still, the repercussions of this announcement of policy may have more effect on 2012 than the Land of the Twelve Tribes. Obama's announcement now gives the GOP presidential field, one that is now playing a game of political musical chairs with too much furniture and not enough music, the barbed wire it needs to wrap around its economy club.
But the greatest pain may not come in a soundbite or a bumper sticker slogan. The Jewish vote, once a founding component of the New Deal coalition and a current stable in the Democratic Party, cannot take much joy from Obama's vision. One GOP strategist on "Meet the Press" boldly predicted he could get 75,000 Jewish votes out of Florida, a critical swing state from Obama's recent statements. While such a figure may be a tad presumptuous, one cannot help but wonder how "two" will play into the numbers.
For Obama at this juncture, it doesn't add up well.
