SEC play is here, and Florida will look to defend its Southeastern Conference title.
On Saturday, UF (9-4) opens conference play in Columbia against Missouri (10-3) at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Gators’ conference slate includes matchups against six teams currently ranked in the AP’s top 25 poll, as well as two nationally-televised broadcasts on ABC.
I went through UF’s SEC slate and predicted how it will fare over the next few months.
Jan. 3 @ Missouri - Florida wins
The two last met during the regular season last year in Gainesville, and the Tigers pulled off the upset in heartbreaking fashion, 83-82. However, Florida has won six of its last seven contests against Missouri, including a 95-81 win during last season’s SEC Tournament.
The Tigers come into the matchup with defeats in both of their meetings against ranked opponents this season, losing No. 21 Kansas on Dec. 7 and No. 20 Illinois on Dec. 22. Expect Florida to take advantage of its size en route to victory, especially as Missouri enters Saturday third-worst in the SEC in rebounds per game.
Jan. 6 v. No. 23 Georgia - Florida wins
The Bulldogs were another opponent who gave the Gators one of their four losses last season, as UGA edged out a 88-83 upset victory in Athens. Before that loss, Florida won 12 straight contests over Georgia, including an 89-59 victory at home last season.
While the Bulldogs have one loss this season, they have yet to play a ranked opponent. Conversely, Florida’s non-conference schedule included three ranked opponents, all of whom are in the AP’s top six.
Behind the support of the home crowd, expect the Gators to give the Bulldogs a tough time in their first true test of the season.
Jan. 10 v. No. 15 Tennessee - Volunteers win
The Volunteers come into conference play as one of the hottest teams in the SEC, going 10-3 with ranked wins over No. 3 Houston on Nov. 25 and No. 11 Louisville on Dec. 16. Last year, the two split the series during the regular season, with the home team blowing out the visitor in each game. Then, in the SEC Tournament title game, Florida came out on top 86-77.
Tennessee has lost six of its last seven games against Florida in Gainesville. However, it has one of the better scoring defenses this season, holding opponents to an SEC-best 64.5 points per game. Considering the Gators' inconsistencies from beyond the arc, which putting them last in the SEC in 3-point shooting percentage, the Volunteers' defense could prevent Florida from generating offense, despite being at home.
Jan. 13 @ Oklahoma - Florida wins
Last year, the Gators made quick work of the Sooners at home, 85-63, and this season, while on the road, Florida should have no issues returning the favor.
Florida is currently Oklahoma’s second-ranked opponent on the schedule after OU fell to No. 21 Gonzaga 83-68.
The Sooners' offense is led by guards Nijel Pack and Xzayvier Brown, who average 16.3 and 15.4 points a game, respectively. However, OU's frontcourt has lacked, as the Sooners average rebounds a game to Florida’s 47.5. The Gators frontcourt should have a chance to take over the game early.
Jan 17 @ No. 11 Vanderbilt - Florida wins
Last season, Florida defeated Vanderbilt 86-75 at home on Feb. 4. While the Gators won 11 of the last 14 meetings between the two, this season’s Commodores team is off to a hot start. Vanderbilt is 13-0 going into SEC play, but has yet to see a ranked opponent this season.
The Commodores' offense, led by senior guard Duke Miles’ 17.1 points per outing, is averaging 94.2 points a game on 51% shooting from the field. However, Florida has the advantage in physicality, with Vanderbilt’s senior forward Devin McGlockton leading the team with 7.3 boards a game, while Rueben Chinyelu (10.9) and Alex Condon (8.9) both average more rebounds a night.
Against No. 5 Duke on Dec. 2, Florida came back in the second half and used its physicality to slow down freshman forward Cameron Boozer. Expect a similar situation in Nashville, where the Gators can pull off the victory and bring their season to life.
Jan. 20 v. LSU - Florida wins
The Gators have dominated this matchup in recent history, winning four straight and five of their last six meetings at the Stephen C. O’Connell Center. The Tigers are entering conference play 12-1, having lost their sole meeting with a ranked opponent to No. 19 Texas Tech.
Back in the O’Dome, where the Gators have lost just two games in as many seasons, Florida should have no issue against this LSU team that has yet to be tested away from home.
Jan. 24 v. Auburn - Florida wins
Auburn has changed much since last season’s Final Four run, where they were eliminated by Florida in San Antonio.
Heading into the 2025-26 season, head coach Bruce Pearl announced his retirement from college basketball, with his son Steven replacing the winningest coach in Tigers history.
This season, Auburn, like Florida, has dealt with the difficulties of a challenging non-conference schedule, losing to No. 1 Houston, No. 2 Arizona, No. 6 Purdue and No. 7 Michigan. The Tigers’ sole road game was against the Wildcats on Dec. 7, where they lost 97-68.
Todd Golden has not lost to a first-year head coach this season, and Florida should be able to keep it that way against Auburn.
Jan. 28 @ South Carolina - Florida wins
The Gamecocks are riding into SEC play with four losses despite not playing a single ranked opponent. Florida has won four of its last five against South Carolina and two of its last three in Columbia.
This season’s USC team ranks the lowest among SEC schools in rebounding, averaging 25.9 boards a game to Florida’s 47.5, putting the Gators No. 2 nationally in rebound margin (15). Florida’s frontcourt, led by Chinyelu and Condon, will be too much for the Gamecocks to handle.
Feb. 1 v. No. 14 Alabama - Florida wins
This matchup is one of Florida’s two appearances on ABC and brings the Crimson Tide to the O’Dome, where they last fell 105-87 in 2024.
Alabama lost all three of its games to ranked opponents this season. However, the Crimson Tide brings offensive power, averaging 94.5 points a game, with guards Labaron Philon Jr. and Aden Holloway leading the charge.
Nate Oats’ team comes into conference play last in the SEC in opponent rebounds, something that Florida will take advantage of. Last season, Condon scored a career-high 27 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in Tuscaloosa on March 5.
In the bright lights, backed by the Rowdy Reptiles, the Florida frontcourt and Condon will pave the way for a crucial conference win.
Feb. 7 @ Texas A&M - Aggies win
Texas A&M (10-3) has yet to play a ranked opponent and beat two of its five major conference opponents. While the Gators won the last two meetings, the Aggies have won three straight in College Station against UF.
Through 13 games, A&M is one of the better offensive teams in the conference, ranked second in 3-point percentage (38.2%) and total offense with 96.2 points a game.
On the road on a Saturday night, this matchup is a trap game, with an Aggies offense pushed by the home crowd looking to upset the defending national champions.
Feb. 11 @ No. 23 Georgia - Bulldogs win
While Florida should win against Georgia in the O’Dome, on the road in Athens will be a different kind of challenge. As mentioned, the Gators were upset at the Stegeman Coliseum last season, and this UGA team is better. The Bulldogs' offense is averaging 99 points per game, leading the nation.
While Florida leads the SEC in rebounding, UGA is right behind with 44.2 boards per outing.
The Bulldogs' offense, led by guards Jeremiah Wilkinson, Blue Cain and Marcus Millender, will come to life and avenge their loss earlier in the season to the Gators in Gainesville.
Feb. 14 v Kentucky - Florida wins
Florida’s second game of the season on ABC will include former Gator and senior guard Denzel Aberdeen making his return to Gainesville after transferring to the Wildcats following last year’s national championship run.
Kentucky comes into SEC play 9-4, losing to No. 12 Louisville, No. 17 Michigan State, No. 16 North Carolina and No. 11 Gonzaga. The Wildcats’ sole ranked win in non-conference play came against No. 22 St. John's. These two have started their seasons in a similar fashion, so expect a close contest come Valentine's Day. However, with Florida at home, the Gators will defeat the Wildcats.
Feb. 17 v. South Carolina - Florida wins
Just like in the road matchup, Florida should cruise past USC due to its advantage on the glass. The Gamecocks have been empty in two straight visits to Gainesville, and this year, the defending national champions will make it three.
Feb. 21 @ Ole Miss - Florida wins
Ole Miss comes into conference play tied with Mississippi State for the worst record at 8-5. The Rebels lost their one game against a ranked opponent to No. 23 Saint John's 63-58 on Dec. 6.
The Gators last won in Oxford in 2016 and will have a chance to end that drought.
The Rebels are last in the SEC in scoring with 74.6 points a game and last in field goal percentage (45%). The Gators also have a plus-10 advantage in rebounds per game over the Rebels, so there should be no issue in taking down Ole Miss.
Feb. 25 @ Texas - Florida wins
The Longhorns are 9-4, including losses to No. 6 Duke on Nov. 4 and No. 5 UConn on Dec. 12. This game will be Florida’s first appearance in Austin since December 1997.
Like Florida, Texas is a good rebounding team, with a plus-12 rebounding margin, ranking them No. 7 nationally. Longhorns sophomore center Matas Vokietaitis leads the team with 15.8 points per game and is one of three players who averages 6.8 rebounds or more per outing.
The closest frontcourt to Florida that Texas has played against was Duke, where it fell 85-70. While the Longhorns are a team that rebounds well, the Gators do it better, giving them the advantage in a head-to-head matchup.
Feb. 28 v. No. 18 Arkansas - Florida wins
Sophomore guard Boogie Fland faces his former team and will be the key to Florida’s success against Arkansas. Expect Fland to come out firing at home, motivated to take down his old team.
While his scoring has not lived up fully to his 13.5 points per game last campaign, he’s shown signs of it with a 16-point outing at No. 5 Duke on Dec. 2 and a season-high 18 points in Florida’s 104-64 victory over North Florida on Nov. 6.
March 3 v. Mississippi State - Florida wins
The Gators’ last home conference game of the campaign is against the Bulldogs, who, at 8-5, are tied with Ole Miss for the worst record in the SEC after non-conference play. Additionally, Mississippi State has the second-worst scoring offense in the SEC, averaging 79.9 points per game.
Considering this game could be the last in the O’Dome for Xaivian Lee, Micah Handlogten, Haugh, Condon and Chinyelu, expect the Gators to empty the tank and grab a win.
March 7 @ Kentucky - Wildcats win
To close the conference slate, Florida travels to one of the toughest atmospheres in college basketball in Rupp Arena. The Gators have lost five of their last seven in Lexington, including a 106-100 overtime thriller last season.
Because it will be senior night, the Wildcats will go all out, and the crowd will have even more of an impact in a building where Florida has struggled recently. Look for Aberdeen to have an impact against his former team in his last regular-season collegiate basketball game.
Overall Record: 23-8 (14-4)
Contact Jeffrey Serber at Jserber@alligator.org. Follow him on X @JeffreySerber.
Jeffrey is the Fall 2025 enterprise and men's basketball beat reporter and a second-year journalism sports & media major. In his free time, he enjoys hanging out with friends and family, and rooting for the Miami sports teams.
