As the 2026 NCAA baseball season winds down, some teams began their playoff preparations early by electing not to play certain games on their schedule.
Between May 5 and May 6, nearly 20 Division I college baseball games were canceled with little to no explanation. Fourteen games were canceled the week before that, and 10 were canceled the week after.
The explanation lies in a mathematical ranking metric known as the ratings percentage index, or RPI. Many consider this metric critical in determining which teams make the NCAA tournament and which don’t.
The mass cancellations prompted a May 6 letter to all college coaches from Michael Alford, the chair of the NCAA Division I Baseball Oversight Committee. The letter advised against canceling scheduled games “for reasons other than inclement weather” and warned teams could be viewed negatively in the committee’s evaluation for doing so.
RPI is calculated using a combination of three factors: a team’s winning percentage, their opponent’s winning percentage and their opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage.
This means it’s possible for teams to be negatively affected by playing a bad team.
Late in the season, a loss to a mid-to-low-major opponent can cause significant damage to a team’s RPI and, in turn, their tournament hopes. Even a blowout win over the same opponent would do virtually nothing to help their chances.
While RPI isn’t the only metric used to consider which teams go dancing, coaches fear it enough to have decided the risk of playing these games isn’t worth the reward.
The University of Miami was ranked No. 34 in RPI when it canceled its May 5 contest against Florida International, which was ranked No. 219. “Unplayable field conditions” were cited as the reason for the cancellation, but the conditions weren’t specified.
The series between Oregon and Grand Canyon would’ve been 20 vs. 211, respectively, in terms of RPI rankings. While Oregon is comfortably in contention for the postseason, its RPI is important in determining whether it hosts a regional series.
Scheduling late-season, mid-week, non-conference games isn’t unusual to college baseball and softball as it is to other sports — so even though RPI exists in other sports, cancellations are most common on the diamond.
Consensus among college baseball talking heads: The RPI is a flawed metric but not a useless one. Many argue other metrics, including the Diamond Sports Ranking and Kevin Pauga Index, should be considered at least as strongly as RPI by the selection committee.
Coaches themselves can take three actions to solve the problem. They can schedule and play the games early in the season so there’s time to rebuild RPI in the event of a loss. They can avoid scheduling the games altogether. Or they can just suck it up and play them.
Casual Ole Miss fans aren’t going to show up to watch the team play UT-Martin on a Tuesday in May, but they might in February. Most fans want to see high-stakes games against conference rivals at the end of the season.
From a revenue and reputation standpoint, it’s more beneficial to the school, the NCAA and the players to just play the games by whatever means necessary.
While no formal action has been taken by the NCAA to punish teams for canceling scheduled games, this is far from a new phenomenon, and warnings like Alford’s have been sent before. In 2024, the same letter was sent by then-committee chairman Matt Hogue.
Clearly, coaches aren’t moved by vague threats, and the NCAA, to this point, hasn’t forced their hand. Unfortunately, the RPI manipulation problem will likely continue to be an annual debate until real sanctions are enforced, reliance on RPI in the selection process is dramatically reduced or scheduling rules are changed.
Until then, the great statistic reigns supreme.
Contact Brayden Schultz at bschultz@alligator.org. Follow him on X @schultzbrayden9.
