Human society could cease to exist in as few as 30 years, author Jared Diamond said to about 1,600 Gainesville residents Thursday.
With this grim message, Diamond offered a glimmer of hope. With responsible use of resources, there is no foreseeable end to society, he said.
The author of "Collapse" and "Guns, Germs and Steel," Diamond spoke as the kickoff to UF's observance of Earth Month.
His works focus on how and why civilizations rise and fall.
Diamond evaluates a society's performance by five factors: environmental, governmental, resource use, friends and enemies.
The mysterious fall of civilizations such as Easter Island and the Maya has captured Diamond's imagination since he was a young child, he said.
In his speech, he discussed factors that contribute to human successes and failures, using civilizations from around the world and throughout history as case studies.
"There are experiments in social science," he said. "Nature has already carried them out."
He originally planned to write 18 chapters, each dealing with a different collapse, but his wife convinced him it would be too depressing, he said. "One should also think about the success and failures of the future, so that we don't make the same mistakes again," he said, after explaining his view that societies must choose success.
Diamond pointed out that, for instance, the collapse of Mayan civilization was likely due to a working-class revolution, brought on by the king's disregard of environmental problems.
As a resident of Los Angeles, he believes that the same mistakes are being made again today in America, he said.
He referenced the two race riots in Los Angeles that happened since he's lived there as a boiling over of lower-class discontent with upper-class rule.
"Eventually, a gated community cannot keep the people outside the gates," he said.
After the event, a line of about 50 book-clutching audience members snaked up the stairs of the Phillips Center for the Performing Arts auditorium, waiting for Diamond's autograph. Three of Diamond's books were on sale in the front room leading up to his speech.
The speech was sponsored by the Office of Sustainability, Soil and Water Science Department, Dean of Students Office, Water Institute, Honors Program, Gators for a Sustainable Campus and School of Natural Resources and Environment.
Diamond was paid $40,000 for his lecture, plus expenses, said Dedee DeLongpré, director of the Office of Sustainability.
